And here I think better collective decision-making institutions played a key role. Idea futures is a good example of this. As you know, idea futures is the market where speculators place bets on hypotheses about future scientific or technological breakthroughs, political events and so forth.
Trading prices - the odds - in idea futures markets gradually became recognized as authoritative estimates of the probabilities of possible future events. In the twentieth century, policymakers would sometimes commission the opinion of bodies of experts that they appointed, but it turns out that the market is much better at making these predictions than politically selected committees. Such markets were once banned under anti-gambling laws in most places. Only gradually were exceptions granted, first for a stock market, then for various commodities and derivatives markets, but only in this century did we see the rise of wide-ranging free markets with low transaction costs, where speculators could trade on most any claim.
Neil: I agree that this was important. The tragedies of the tens and twenties, where genetically engineered biological viruses were used to kill millions, also helped prepare the world. People have seen the damage that a malicious guy can do with self-replicating organisms. And nanotech is much, much more powerful. I think we have been incredibly lucky so far.
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Maybe we are witnessing the result of what philosophers call an observational selection effect. Maybe most civilizations in our infinite universe destroy themselves when they develop nanotechnology, but only the lucky ones remain to wonder about their luck. So our success so far should not make us complacent.
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According To The United Nations Population Fund, The World
So we had all these little secrets that we thought were so important, little vices. But when we can see that everybody has similar little vices, our standards adapt and we become more tolerant.
And the streets are much safer now. Chun: The key to preventing global surveillance from turning into global suppression is to always insist on basic liberties and to keep government and law-enforcement agencies under constant scrutiny. Emily: Yet there are still rumblings about it being a plot by the technologically advanced countries to monopolize the power coming from the nanotech revolution. Chun: The logic is crystal clear to every honest thinker. Since there is as yet no general defense against nanotech attacks that could potentially destroy the biosphere, such attacks must be prevented at any cost.
The only way to do that is to limit the number of powers who have nanotechnology. Emily: I agree that is a good argument, and that we have to limit access to nanotechnology until we have developed reliable defenses. The people who are excluded from building nano-assemblers have a right to be compensated. Current transfer payments are nowhere near what they are entitled to. Chun: It is also a problem of intellectual property laws, which has been a burning issue for quite some time now.
Host: It appears that we have lost transmission from Emily - she was on her yacht. What lies ahead? Neil, I know that you have expressed pessimism about the future -. There has been a series of incidents already. As technological know-how spreads, it may be harder and harder to make sure that no rogue group develops an assembler. Building an effective global immune system for self-replicating nanomachines is a very, very difficult challenge.
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It has to be present everywhere, on land, sea, and in the atmosphere. It must avoid attacking biological life forms. We are very far from being able to do that at the present time. Chun: Surveillance technology is improving rapidly, however. Neil: Yes, but what if someone develops a good counter-surveillance technology?
Intelligence agencies are now discussing proposals for monitoring and preventing research in that field as well.
Tech of the future: technology predictions for our world in 2050
But the problem is that the task is so ill-defined. Who can say what research might potentially lead to some way of tricking the global surveillance network? Host: Are there any idea futures claims that measure the probability of these things? You see, who would want to bet on the hypothesis that civilization will be destroyed?
If you are right, you would not get paid! It is disconcerting to note that what economists call the time discount factor seems to have been going up.
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The time discount factor is a measure of how much more value people place on a present good compared to having the same good at some point later in the future. That could be interpreted as people being worried about whether they will be around to benefit from their savings. The digitalization of work will also change human-led, manual work into automated and machine-led collaborative tasks, as well as shift the need for physical location-based work to more virtual and task-based work. Digitalization will impact the workforce. From the transformation of managing skills into managing partnerships, shift in focus on improvement and optimization towards focus on disruption and radical innovation and the transformation of of predictability and structure into the need for ambiguity, tolerance and resistance, digitalization will force people to move away from learning how to do and instead force them to learn how to learn.
Digitalization will impact the workplace. In the future, rather than people going to where the work is, work will instead go to where the talent is; similarly, limited connectivity and on-premise work will be transformed into a constant digital connection to work, and teams will become more global and technology intensive rather than localized like many companies are today.
Digitalization will impact organization and culture. While the world is currently experiencing a dichotomy between centralization and decentralization, digitalization will enable future organizations to focus on a more balanced and hybrid approach to work. Similarly, organizations will no longer have to choose between innovation and speed as digitalization will enable both to work simultaneously. It is these sorts of continuums that Carissa Carter, director of teaching and learning at Stanford University, argues can be found throughout our world—such as the continuum between political parties, school and work, and even social issues such as the percentage of male CEOs to female CEOs.
Indeed, it is through this highly applied real-world work that students are best able to experience firsthand themselves the effects of the political, social and economic continuums that influence us all, and learn how to dismantle many of the oppressive schemes that hold back organizations today. There are several continua that affect the social, political and economic fabrics of our society.
While we traditionally expect people to follow a straightforward path from school to work, it is more effective for people to loop back and forth between the two in order to continue learning new skills and insights that can then continuously be applied to their work. Right now, the US education system is more structured than it has ever been with a clear pipeline from K to higher education.
Conversely, the world we experience after higher education is extremely ambiguous—and it is this sharp dichotomy that often leads to the failure of many graduates to tackle the world of work successfully. In order to deal with the unpredictable nature of work after school, it is crucial for this ambiguity to be put into school life by providing students with opportunities to experience different work settings before they graduate. However, a skill print model where both accomplishments and potentials are shown—such as one that showcases not only what classes a student has taken, but also future desires, interests and goals—may be more effective to not only show where a student has been, but also where they have the potential to go.
This continuum demonstrates the percentage of male to female CEOs in SMP companies, and also shows how crucial it is for organizations to be combatting the large gender gap found throughout industries. Factors such as where we grew up, our culture and our current context leads to certain biases, but it is important to both use this bias and dismantle it by experiencing new environments and cultures in order to increase our intuition.
Place continua. From private to open, inclusive to exclusive, focused to generative, owned to maintained and precious to non-precious, the space we operate our organizations in can drastically alter how employees work. While a private, exclusive and non-precious space can be used to help individuals work on private projects, for example, open, inclusive and generative spaces can be used to inspire teams to work together in more creative ways.
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As Iris Bohnet of Harvard Kennedy School demonstrates, much like the popular checkerboard illusion where two squares that appear to be different colors due to the lighting of surrounding squares are actually the same color, our often misconceived notions about certain stereotypes—such as our views on women in the workforce—are influenced by the framework that surrounds us, and in order to see past the illusion of bias, organizations need to first dismantle the structures that hold these biases in place.
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